'Chances Are . . . Adventures in Probability,' by Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan - The New York Times - Book Review - New York Times

'Chances Are . . . Adventures in Probability,' by Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan - The New York Times - Book Review - New York Times: "In the 17th century, governments took advantage of the average citizen's inability to assess probability by selling annuities, a type of insurance policy in which the buyer, in essence, bets that he will live longer than most other people. As with all casino bets, the house held an edge. The government possessed mortality statistics, regarded as state secrets, and used them to rig the odds. It also relied on basic psychology, 'the instinctive belief that everyone dies at an average age — except me.'"